Where Non-Alcoholic Wine Fits into the Future of Wine Country 🍷

The Changing Landscape of Wine Country

Wine country is facing a perfect storm. But there is sunlight, just above those clouds.

Deep in the heart of Napa Valley, where vineyards have thrived for generations, the ground is shifting. Supply and demand are completely out of balance, and 2024 brought one of the largest harvests in recent memory — just as demand dropped through the floor. 📈📉

Premium Napa Cabernet grapes that once commanded $10,000 to $14,000 per ton are now struggling to get $1,500, if they sell at all. In some cases, fruit is simply left to die on the vine because the cost of harvesting can't be justified. In other cases, super-premium wine is being dumped down the drain, or sold as "NDA Wine's".

This isn’t just a market correction. It's a deeper signal: a tidal shift in consumers drinking preferences. And for wine country to survive, it has to pivot, adapt and innovate.

Why Are People Drinking Less Wine?

The shift away from alcohol is happening across three generations, each for different reasons:

Baby Boomers are aging out of wine and being told point-blank by doctors to cut back or stop drinking entirely. This is while the medical industry has been in the news and has soft-pedaled the message: there’s no “safe” amount of alcohol. Boomers still have "A glass of wine a day is good for you!" but alcohol is having its cigarette moment and what used to be seen as healthy moderation is now clearly linked to health risks.

Millennials are leading a different kind of movement. They grew to love wine, but they love feeling good even more. Hangovers hit harder, and the cost to productivity and wellness is no longer worth it. They're not anti-wine — they're pro-energy, pro-clarity, and pro-longevity. Note: I skipped Gen X above because, statistically, they're kind of staying on par with their old drinking habits.

Gen Z is what frightens Big Wine the most. They are not getting their guaranteed customer this year. Gen Z (college kids) are forming entirely different relationships with alcohol — or in many cases, not forming one at all. I hear it all the time from parents while at my Ocean Beach Cafe, "Oh my god, I can't believe my child doesn't even want to drink!"

Here are some possible reasons why:

They watched their parents drink heavily during COVID.
They don't want to show up wasted on social media and care about their image.
They want to take care of the environment and their bodies and have more of a focus on mental health and mindfulness.
Opinion: Maybe growing up with a phone in their face rewired something in the brain that doesn't make them seek the spikes that come from alcohol?

Three generations. Different reasons. Same result: Alcohol is being disrupted by wellness. The old assumptions about drinking as a default and the main character to every social event are becoming a thing of the past.

A Misunderstanding Between Industries

There’s a loud disdain coming from some Boomers in the traditional wine industry just as the meteoric rise of non-alcoholic wine is unfolding. Their rhetoric keeps using terms like "neo-prohibitionism" and "anti-alcohol movement," and honestly — it's sad. Everyone should be on board for wellness. For people wanting to live a healthier life.

I haven’t heard a single brand, founder, or mover in the non-alcoholic beverage space say they want to destroy the alcohol industry. Alcohol will always be on the table — just not quite as much, and not in the same way.

Big Wine is facing an existential threat to what they built their lives around, and they’re lashing out. But let’s call a spade a spade: most non-alcoholic wine still sucks. There’s a 90% chance, if someone has tried NA wine before, it was exceptionally bad.

I’ve spent the last five years specifically devoted to finding the best non-alcoholic red wine in the world — and I absolutely found it. It’s called Zeronimo, by the way.

Those of us building the non-alcoholic movement aren’t here to tear anything down. We love wine. We love the craft, the terroir, the artistry, the ritual. What we want is choice — the ability to have the same experience, the same flavors of great wine, without the alcohol.

As Charlie Krebs, a deep Napa wine industry insider put it:"It’s not that I don’t want wine. I just can’t have the alcohol anymore. It’s not you. It’s me."

This movement isn’t anti-alcohol — it’s about expansion. It’s about serving the millions who’ve cut back or stopped drinking. It’s about what the next generations will be drinking.

De-alcoholized wine isn’t a threat to wine country — it’s one of the lifelines for its future.

The Opportunity Hidden in Crisis

The current struggles in wine country aren’t just problems to survive — they’re opportunities to evolve.

There’s already proof. Zeronimo NA wine I mentioned above is made by a prestigious Austrian winery, Heribert Bayer, with over 30 years of tradition and a reputation for super premium wine. They doubled their sales last year by launching a sommelier approved line of non-alcoholic wines. They didn’t abandon who they were — they expanded who they could serve.

Forward-thinking wineries will recognize that non-alcoholic options aren’t competition. They’re expansion. They’re a way to future-proof the business, reach new customers, and keep wine culture alive for a new generation that wants the ritual but doesn't want the alcohol.

We will be seeing a Kendall Jackson made 9% wine. And a 0%. Maybe even a 4.5%.

The conversation has to shift from "how do we protect what we had" to "how do we build what’s coming." Because whether we like it or not, it’s already here.

What’s Missing in the Market

Non-alcoholic beer has exploded with innovation. It’s craft-driven. It’s become cool. It’s now high quality and not as stigmatized.

Non-alcoholic wine? Still in its infancy.

For a long time, almost nobody even thought about non-alcoholic wine — unless you were pregnant, religious, or your doctor told you to quit drinking. It simply wasn’t part of the conversation and had little to no awareness. NA Wine absolutely has not showed up on menus until recently. It's not normal to ask for it at restaurants the way non-alcoholic beer is today. But you should see how much NA Wine I sell at my Ocean Beach Cafe! Its the most requested and sold category in the shop next to "functional beverages"! (Here's a blog post on that)

I still get, and will continue to get these statements everywhere when speaking about this subject: "Isn't that grape juice?!" "What's the point?" "So, how is it actually made?"

But that’s going to change — fast.

The demand and the awareness is building. The culture is shifting. And the opportunity is sitting wide open. The truth is, it's not that people don't want non-alcoholic wine, they just don't know to ask for it. And if they bought it, it probably wasn't great, as I mentioned above.

Making great non-alcoholic wine is hard. It demands real winemaking skill, patience, and a deep understanding of both traditional craftsmanship and modern technology. It demands that the people who truly know wine step into this new space and bring their best work with them. The technology to create world-class non-alcoholic wine already exists — and it’s getting better every year. De-alcoholizing equipment is already in wine country and more is arriving this year. What's missing isn't the tools. It's the boldness to combine old-world expertise with new-world methods and create something exceptional. This is just the era that we're in and I know I wont be proselytizing about this in 2 years!

There’s a wide-open lane here. The only question is: Who’s going to drive through it first?

The Future of Wine Country

The future of wine country won’t look like its past — and that’s not a loss. That’s an evolution. You can't just put up sandbags when sea levels are rising.

Wine will get more boutique. More intentional. More diverse. The wineries that are to come won’t just produce great traditional wines — they’ll create beautiful low abv and non-alcoholic wines crafted with the same care, the same terroir, the same respect for the art form.

Leaving money on the table

Restaurants and bars aren’t in the alcohol business. They’re in the hospitality business — the business of putting great drinks into people's hands. What I see happening first hand is: that glass does not have to have alcohol in it to have an amazing, memorable, emotional time connecting with others. Increasingly, people in society are seeking social experiences that fit the way they live now.

The next great wine brands won’t be the ones who resist change. They’ll be the ones who lead it.

Wine country has reinvented itself many times before — after phylloxera, the rise of New World wines, and now Natural Wines. This is just the next chapter.